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Iranian media published articles under the headlines "Why did Tehran agree to a ceasefire?", "What happened in 12 days?", and "What should we do next?"
Published articles state that in the first blow of the war, as a result of large-scale internal sabotage and intensive Israeli air strikes, most of Iran's long- and medium-range air defense systems were disabled.
From the 2nd or 3rd day of the war, Israel was moving almost completely freely in Iranian airspace - first in the West, and then gradually towards the Center of Iran. For a while, we saw that UAVs were also moving freely, which is an indication of how bad the situation was.
Air superiority is a key factor in understanding the missile issue.
Iran still has tens of thousands of ballistic missiles and hundreds of launchers. But that's not the point. The problem is that due to Israel's complete air superiority, Iran could not launch a large-scale missile strike. Every time Iran tried to remove launchers from underground bases, Israel immediately detected and destroyed it.
Therefore, Iran was forced to conduct its missile operations with small-scale, "hit-and-run" tactics. Old missiles were being used from bases in the Central and Eastern par of country, and as a result, Iran’s ability to retaliate gradually weakened.
In these circumstances, it was unrealistic to continue the war. From the very first days, there was no real deterrent. Firing 10–20 missiles a day, without a larger military objective, was simply a waste.
From a military perspective, Israel is clearly the winner, and there is no need to embellish this. From a political perspective, Israel has lost:
● The main goals were not achieved;
● The Islamic Republic of Iran is still standing;
● The nuclear program continues;
● Martyred commanders have been replaced.
Israel’s main achievement in this war was to almost completely disable Iran’s air defense network and, as a result, suppress Iran’s large-scale missile fire. This left Iran in a helpless position – because it had no way to respond to the escalation.
What will Israel do?
Israel will use this ceasefire to rearm, prepare for the next war. They will try to gradually move towards their main goal, which is regime change.
It is even possible to apply the “Lebanon model” to Iran — that is, to launch targeted attacks on Iran during the ceasefire period, but not receive a response.
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WSJ: US ties Chinese satellite imagery to deadly Iran-linked strike
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Bloomberg: IAEA Detects New Activity at Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain
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Iran deputy speaker calls for targeting US economic interests in region
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Kayhan Newspaper: Iran Should Cut Internet Cables in the Arabian Gulf
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Tehran mayor warns Iran could weaken from within without reform
Jerusalem Post: A united front stands against Iran’s mullahs and their brutal regime - opinion
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